Could the Blackk Death Happen Again

An Oriental rat flea with the blackness death infecting its gut (dark region).

National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases via Wiki Eatables

What was the Blackness Decease?

The black death was a bacterial infection that became a pandemic in the years 1348-1351. The disease originated in black rats, and institute its way into humans via fleas that fed on both species. The black death works by blocking a flea'southward gut (come across moving picture). The starving insect then bites its host more aggressively while simultaneously trying to regurgitate the diseased blockage. An expulsion of leaner into the bite wound infects the current human or beast host.

The blackness expiry began in China or Central Asia before spreading to Europe. When an invading Mongol army catapulted their expressionless into a European settlement in 1347, fleas carrying the disease constitute their way onto rats aboard boats traveling in the Mediterranean Body of water. When the boats reached the over-populated, rat-infested cities of Europe, the infected fleas enjoyed regular contact with humans. The disease killed equally many as 200 million people in Europe, which was near half of the population. Those suffering from the disease had their doors painted with a ruby-red or black cross to warn people away.

The main black death symptoms are buboes (swollen lumps as big as apples), black blotches on the skin, fever, vomiting blood, and death in less than a week. An even deadlier pneumonic variant of the disease infects the lungs, producing flu-like symptoms that let for transmission between humans.

Yersinia Pestis (pictured) caused the bubonic plague and the black death.

Public Domain via Wikimedia Eatables

Causes of the Black Death

To understand if the blackness death could render, it is worth investigating the bacterium responsible, and the ecology factors that contributed to the original pandemic.

Many scientists believe the black decease was caused by Yersinia pestis. For those without a caste in epidemiology, this bacterium is famous for causing the bubonic plague; a illness which ravaged Europe in the 17th century. Some have questioned the plague connexion, but the issue was put to rest when fragments of Yersinia pestis Dna were discovered in the graves of black death victims. Minor discrepancies showed that the black death bacterium had evolved since the 14th century, suggesting the original disease no longer exists.

Black death victims showed testify of having suffered from bubonic plague.

S. Tzortzis via Wikimedia Eatables

1 of the main causes of the blackness expiry was a sustained cold climate. Europe went through a "Little Ice Age" from the 14th to 19th centuries, causing poor harvests, widespread famine, and malnutrition. This would have weakened people's allowed systems, increasing their susceptibility to disease. Studies have revealed that many of the dead suffered from malnutrition, suggesting the black decease was selective in picking off the vulnerable.

Another factor was the unseasonably warm weather that preceded the Fiddling Ice Age. Agricultural tools had been developed for softer soil, and an excess of food had convinced people to accept large families. Thus, over-population and difficulty in harvesting food worsened the subsequent famine.

Long-term common cold temperatures typified the black expiry (1350) and plague (1665).

Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons

Poor medieval sanitation also contributed to the pandemic. Filthy streets covered with livestock, rats, and excrement were common in European cities, and homes were often shoddy and open to pest invasion. According to gimmicky accounts, information technology's likely that the effects of the black death were intensified past other illnesses such as pox, worms, typhus and dysentery.

Visible symptoms of the black decease.

Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons

Could the Black Death Return?

The blackness death never completely died out after the 1348-1351 pandemic. Sporadic recurrences continued until another major outbreak in 1664-1665. The disease and then steadily declined in prevalence until a "Third Pandemic" began in China in 1855. This third wave struck India in 1896, killing more than than 10 million people. Small-scale outbreaks also occurred in San Francisco from 1900-1904, and Commonwealth of australia from 1900-1925.

The black death is still existence contracted by people today. Around k to 3000 cases occur each year with a expiry rate of nigh 10%. Indeed, there were ten reported cases in the U.s. in 1993, of which 9 recovered with the aid of antibiotic drugs. The main modes of infection were flea or fauna bites.

Despite the success of modern antibiotics, the Yersinia Pestis bacterium may develop an immunity. Currently there is no vaccine for the black death, and the prospect of another pandemic arose when a drug-resistant strain was constitute in Madagascar in 1995. The Yersinia Pestis bacteria in a sixteen year-erstwhile boy had developed resistance to 8 forms of antibiotics. Researchers concluded that the resistant genes had been augmented from other forms of bacteria such every bit salmonella and E. coli.

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The more than we use and abuse antibiotics, the more likely it is that drug-resistant bacteria will transfer their resistances to lethal strains of Yersinia Pestis. This could cause some other black decease pandemic, though improvements in general wellness and diet should forbid fatalities from reaching 14th century proportions. Nevertheless, in this age of global travel, the affliction could spread effectually the world in weeks, exacting a greater total death toll.

Modernistic Cases of Blackness Decease

Environmental Factors

High numbers of rats and animals in urban areas may also contribute to a future pandemic. Squirrels are particularly good carriers of fleas that transmit the illness. Pets and livestock can become infected too, though they tend to die quicker. Animals wouldn't be required if the deadlier influenza-similar version of the black death pathogen became widespread (pneumonic plague). Face-to-face contact between humans would be enough to spread the disease.

Perhaps the about likely prelude to another black death pandemic is environmental change. A colder climate over long periods could lead to crop failure, malnutrition and starvation. Over-population could equally lead to a lack of nutrient. As with the original pandemic, malnutrition opens the door to affliction by weakening ane's immune organisation. A catastrophic effect such as a nuclear explosion, an asteroid impact, or widespread volcanic activity could lower global temperatures by filling the atmosphere with grit.

Smaller changes in the climate could also raise the rate of infection. While wetter and warmer weather isn't probable to cause malnutrition, it does let leaner to grow quicker. In Central Asia, a one caste ascent in the average annual temperature increased black death prevalence by 59%. A peculiarly constructive combination is warmer winters and cooler, wetter summers. Human being-made global warming or El Niño furnishings could easily provide favorable conditions in a number of developed regions.

Victim's doors were marked.

History Project Acadia (CC)

The Black Death Today

In the 14th century, people blamed the blackness death on God's acrimony, and ready about murdering minorities who they thought were to arraign. This included Jews, lepers, Roma, and foreigners of all description.

In the 21st century, we understand the danger that microbial organisms pose to our health, so it'southward unlikely that such extreme prejudice would re-emerge. Still, with the advent of international news and media, we are more attuned to events elsewhere in the earth than at any other fourth dimension. If an epidemic were to arise in India, for case, one could wait discriminatory behavior against ethnic Indians in other countries, even if they had non traveled from infected areas.

The act of painting a cross on the homes of the infected is another case of discriminatory behavior that would probably not be seen today. Infected people would be advised to remain in their homes, and our understanding of bacterial transmission should be enough to forbid them from carelessly infecting others.

Summary

Despite at that place being no vaccine for the blackness death, the chances of another pandemic are slim. Infection and fatality rates have decreased since the 14th century due to improved sanitation and nutrition; amend protection against adverse weather; and constructive antibiotic treatments. For another pandemic to occur, 1 or both of the post-obit would exist required:

1. The evolution of a drug-resistant strain of the Yersinia Pestis bacterium.
2. An environmental catastrophe causing widespread detriment to human health.

Although these threats are quite existent, there are other contagious diseases that present a greater danger. These include Avian Flu, Malaria, Hantavirus, Due west Nile virus, and Dengue fever. For example, it is predicted that global warming will soon permit Malaria to render to Europe. Indeed, warmer and wetter temperatures every bit well as over-population volition contribute to a greater number of pandemics in the future.

© 2013 Thomas Swan

Thomas Swan (author) from New Zealand on July 28, 2015:

Thank y'all for your very informative comment Raevyn14.

Raevyn14 from Tecumseh, Oklahoma on July 28, 2015:

The idea of having another epidemic like that of the 14th century is unlikely. In that location are treatments to the 3 types of plagues. Vaccinations, nevertheless, have been proven ineffective to the Pneumonic plague. Here in the U.s. there are fewer than 7 cases of plague a year. In that location are very powerful medications that take care of the plague in 7 days.. If you don't desire the treatments.. So with the Bubonic plague yous take less than seven 24-hour interval before the disease takes hold. The Pneumonic plague tin can take 3 days 'fore the disease to have over the lungs. Septicemic plague, yet, can take 1 day for symptoms to announced and its the quickest of them all because by the fourth dimension you bear witness symptoms, information technology takes over.

Thomas Swan (author) from New Zealand on Apr 26, 2014:

Thanks Alicia. I promise and so also. Your annotate is quite casual, every bit I was thinking near this topic again just yesterday. There was a story in the news about a man who was finding rats in his attic, some as large as cats. The number of rats in adult areas may be on the ascent, and that could increment the (small) chance of some other outbreak.

Linda Crampton from British Columbia, Canada on April 25, 2014:

This is a useful and very interesting hub. It's likewise thought provoking! I promise the globe doesn't face a blackness death pandemic again.

Thomas Swan (author) from New Zealand on Oct 03, 2013:

Cheers Michelle. I agree that if an epidemic were to happen again, it would probably begin in the developing world.

Michele Travis from U.s.A. Ohio on Oct 03, 2013:

Another very interesting hub. I call back in that location is a possibility that this epidemic can happen again. For instance, the increasing percentage of people living in severe poverty in countries similar Africa. Or people who have had to flee their homes due to wars, like Syria and are living and so shut together and drinking water that is not clean.

There are a few possibilities, I am not sure. But thinking about it.

Thomas Swan (author) from New Zealand on September 26, 2013:

That's a great point wilderness. It rings a bell with me too, but I didn't retrieve of it when writing this hub. I believe they hated cats because of their association with witches, and that association probably arose due to Christianity vilifying "pagan" belief systems. The Egyptians worshipped cats, so that might be the source of it all.

Thomas Swan (author) from New Zealand on September 26, 2013:

Thanks jonny, I suppose it'due south one of many things we could do to improve our globe. It e'er amazes me how the Earth provides us with all the free energy nosotros could ever demand (sun, wind, geothermal, tidal, etc) and we resort to burning fossil fuels instead. Thanks for the info on humanure.

Dan Harmon from Boise, Idaho on September 25, 2013:

A well written and interesting hub - thank you.

In researching for a hub on Halloween, I came across a suggestion that humanity may take contributed to the black death in a more definitive manner. During that period in our history (European) in that location was a huge fearfulness of cats, including the business firm cats we continue as pets today. Cats were routinely hunted down and killed, to the point that they were nearly wiped out throughout much of Europe - cats that in a densely populated expanse are a major gene in controlling rat populations.

Did nosotros, by meddling with ecological balances, contribute to the epidemic? An interesting thought if nada else, and shows just how dangerous that can be.

jonnycomelately on September 25, 2013:

Not an uncommon response to the proffer, Thomas, and quite understandable. However, when using the Humanure method, every bit practised and written nearly past Joseph Jenkins in his "Humanure Handbook," I tin define there is absolutely no problem with smell.

The method is a wonderful education for our mod world, which has benefited enormously from the "affluent" system since it was introduced in the 19th century. That was when the world had a population of less than 2 billion. Now nosotros must enquiry many areas of our relatively comfortable existence and observe more sustainable and healthy methods to apply the express resources like water, fertilizers and soils.

A event of such changes volition exist a more healthy surroundings and reduction of water-borne diseases.

Thomas Swan (writer) from New Zealand on September 24, 2013:

That sounds interesting jonny. I don't know a lot about that. I wonder how bad information technology would odor, only information technology seems similar something that could be washed in the developing world to forbid those diseases.

jonnycomelately on September 22, 2013:

You might be aware from some of my hubs and previous comments, that one of my large interests is more ecologically sensible infrastructure systems. One of those is sewerage. Composting excreta, ( Google "Humanure" ) instead of mixing it with fresh, potable water, can prevent the spread of water-borne diseases similar cholera and typhoid. Compost can be fed back into agronomics when done properly, safely and with the recycling of important plant nutrients. Then this is one way at least smaller communities could work towards "sustainability" and good for you lifestyles. You are not going to get huge metropolises going down this big change in the most time to come, simply for local communities, wishing to accept charge of their own needs, it could exist a large benefit to their survival.

In my apprehensive opinion.

In my stance.

Thomas Swan (author) from New Zealand on September 22, 2013:

Thanks jonny, glad y'all liked it.

Good point chefsref. While our medical cognition, nutrition, sanitation, and international response to famine makes us less susceptible to pandemics, population density and travel will work in the opposite direction. It gives the impression that if a `superbug' were to become through our defenses, information technology could pretty much wipe out anybody.

Lee Raynor from Citra Florida on September 21, 2013:

Fantabulous Hub

I remember there is a bigger point behind this. With the increase in the number of people on Earth, the population density in cities and piece of cake human being mobility information technology seems inevitable that some untreatable disease is likely in the time to come. It may not exist the Plague just there are plenty of diseases to choose from

jonnycomelately on September 20, 2013:

Excellent presentation. Thanks Thomas. About interesting.

thomasharrinat.blogspot.com

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